Oilfield-Intel, using methods developed by a team of analysts and petroleum engineers, has constructed a prediction model to forecast global petroleum prices. By analyzing supply and demand data from a number of sources and making predictions on key geopolitical events (particularly, OPEC meetings, major political changes in high-production geographies, and key dates on the financial calender) Oilfield Intel has established a model for forecasting the international price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil.
We then compare our own price forecast against several others from government agencies, financial institutions, think-tanks, and editorial publications. We weight these models according to their accuracy when tested against historical data. The product of these weighted averages is the forecast shown below.
The resulting forecast of WTI crude spot prices (in current US Dollars, not adjusted for inflation) for the first day of the specified quarter is as follows:
2QTR 2015 – $49.58
3QTR 2015 – $52.40
4QTR 2015 – $56.45
1QTR 2016 – $59.94
2QTR 2016 – $62.39