- The Ukraine government realizes it can’t get involved in open hostilities. This lowers the chance of war.
- Racial tensions in Ukraine between Russian speaking Ukrainians and regular Ukrainians do not appear to be fostering violence. This lowers the chance of ethnic civilian attacks.
- The occupied Crimea shows signs that parts of the populous are pro Russian, but even the Soviet troops are reasonably polite to Ukrainian troops. We’ve encountered stories where soldiers of opposite sides know each other, and clearly don’t want hostilities to breakout. This lowers the chance of war.
- Russia has begun to threaten to close the gas pipeline based on ‘accounting’ as predicted in our earlier forecast. This raises a shut down probability.
Overall, the net effect is to lower the chances of a natural gas pipeline shut down to 64%.